Daily market report
Election markets on Monday, June 1, 2026
Republicans ended the day 54% to win the Senate (Democratic odds up 0.5 points); Democrats ended the day 79% to win the House (Democratic odds up 0.5 points); the biggest move was OH-13 (Ohio), where Democratic odds went from 66% to 87%; 1 race changed favorites.
Kalshi and Polymarket, averaged · times in UTC days
Biggest moves
| Race | Start of day | End of day | Change (D) |
|---|---|---|---|
| OH-13 (Ohio) | D 66% | D 87% | ▲ 21.3 |
| NY-22 (New York) | D 73% | D 52% | ▼ 20.9 |
| MI-03 (Michigan) | D 69% | D 88% | ▲ 19.1 |
| FL-03 (Florida) | D 32% | D 15% | ▼ 16.6 |
| CA-25 (California) | D 75% | D 91% | ▲ 16.6 |
| NM-03 (New Mexico) | D 87% | D 72% | ▼ 14.9 |
| NJ-05 (New Jersey) | D 56% | D 69% | ▲ 13.6 |
| FL-07 (Florida) | D 35% | D 21% | ▼ 13.4 |
| UT-03 (Utah) | D 43% | D 29% | ▼ 13.3 |
| NY-01 (New York) | D 30% | D 43% | ▲ 12.6 |
Lead changes
- WI-01 (Wisconsin)Republican now favored: D 54% → 46%
