Daily market report
Election markets on Tuesday, June 2, 2026
Republicans ended the day 56% to win the Senate (Democratic odds down 1.6 points); Democrats ended the day 79% to win the House; the biggest move was NY-19 (New York), where Democratic odds went from 56% to 80%; 2 races changed favorites.
Kalshi and Polymarket, averaged · times in UTC days
Biggest moves
| Race | Start of day | End of day | Change (D) |
|---|---|---|---|
| NY-19 (New York) | D 56% | D 80% | ▲ 24.1 |
| VA-07 (Virginia) | D 71% | D 93% | ▲ 21.9 |
| UT-03 (Utah) | D 29% | D 46% | ▲ 16.2 |
| CA-06 (California) | D 72% | D 88% | ▲ 15.9 |
| CA-25 (California) | D 91% | D 75% | ▼ 15.9 |
| NV-03 (Nevada) | D 64% | D 80% | ▲ 15.7 |
| MN-02 (Minnesota) | D 75% | D 90% | ▲ 15.0 |
| NJ-05 (New Jersey) | D 69% | D 83% | ▲ 14.2 |
| FL-18 (Florida) | D 19% | D 33% | ▲ 13.9 |
| IN-04 (Indiana) | D 12% | D 25% | ▲ 13.6 |
Lead changes
- PA-01 (Pennsylvania)Republican now favored: D 53% → 46%
- TX-15 (Texas)Republican now favored: D 51% → 46%
