Daily market report
Election markets on Wednesday, June 24, 2026
Republicans ended the day 58% to win the Senate (Democratic odds down 0.8 points); Democrats ended the day 80% to win the House; the biggest move was CT-05 (Connecticut), where Democratic odds went from 57% to 89%; 1 race changed favorites.
Kalshi and Polymarket, averaged · times in UTC days
Biggest moves
| Race | Start of day | End of day | Change (D) |
|---|---|---|---|
| CT-05 (Connecticut) | D 57% | D 89% | ▲ 31.8 |
| UT-03 (Utah) | D 30% | D 9% | ▼ 21.0 |
| VA-10 (Virginia) | D 63% | D 84% | ▲ 20.6 |
| MS-04 (Mississippi) | D 19% | D 6% | ▼ 13.0 |
| WA-08 (Washington) | D 85% | D 93% | ▲ 7.3 |
| NV-03 (Nevada) | D 84% | D 76% | ▼ 7.3 |
| MI-03 (Michigan) | D 82% | D 89% | ▲ 6.9 |
| OR-05 (Oregon) | D 69% | D 76% | ▲ 6.7 |
| FL-01 (Florida) | D 15% | D 8% | ▼ 6.6 |
| FL-23 (Florida) | D 82% | D 88% | ▲ 6.4 |
Lead changes
- FL-14 (Florida)Republican now favored: D 50% → 46%
