Daily market report
Election markets on Thursday, June 25, 2026
Republicans ended the day 58% to win the Senate; Democrats ended the day 81% to win the House (Democratic odds up 1.1 points); the biggest move was FL-18 (Florida), where Democratic odds went from 31% to 16%.
Kalshi and Polymarket, averaged · times in UTC days
Biggest moves
| Race | Start of day | End of day | Change (D) |
|---|---|---|---|
| FL-18 (Florida) | D 31% | D 16% | ▼ 14.6 |
| TX-27 (Texas) | D 32% | D 19% | ▼ 13.5 |
| TX-18 (Texas) | D 95% | D 88% | ▼ 7.1 |
| CA-20 (California) | D 8% | D 1% | ▼ 6.3 |
| NY-17 (New York) | D 66% | D 72% | ▲ 6.2 |
| NY-21 (New York) | D 21% | D 27% | ▲ 6.1 |
| VA-11 (Virginia) | D 86% | D 92% | ▲ 6.0 |
| FL-13 (Florida) | D 28% | D 33% | ▲ 5.4 |
| FL-14 (Florida) | D 46% | D 42% | ▼ 3.9 |
| TX-31 (Texas) | D 32% | D 28% | ▼ 3.9 |
