Daily market report
Election markets on Tuesday, June 23, 2026
Republicans ended the day 57% to win the Senate (Democratic odds up 0.7 points); Democrats ended the day 80% to win the House; the biggest move was PA-17 (Pennsylvania), where Democratic odds went from 59% to 90%; 1 race changed favorites.
Kalshi and Polymarket, averaged · times in UTC days
Biggest moves
| Race | Start of day | End of day | Change (D) |
|---|---|---|---|
| PA-17 (Pennsylvania) | D 59% | D 90% | ▲ 31.8 |
| CT-05 (Connecticut) | D 87% | D 57% | ▼ 29.1 |
| NY-04 (New York) | D 50% | D 79% | ▲ 29.1 |
| VA-07 (Virginia) | D 62% | D 90% | ▲ 27.3 |
| FL-13 (Florida) | D 55% | D 31% | ▼ 23.9 |
| NY-19 (New York) | D 55% | D 77% | ▲ 22.0 |
| IN-01 (Indiana) | D 64% | D 79% | ▲ 15.2 |
| NY-22 (New York) | D 69% | D 83% | ▲ 13.8 |
| NJ-03 (New Jersey) | D 71% | D 85% | ▲ 13.6 |
| MS-04 (Mississippi) | D 8% | D 19% | ▲ 11.0 |
Lead changes
- FL-13 (Florida)Republican now favored: D 55% → 31%
