Daily market report
Election markets on Monday, June 22, 2026
Republicans ended the day 58% to win the Senate; Democrats ended the day 80% to win the House; the biggest move was PA-17 (Pennsylvania), where Democratic odds went from 88% to 59%; 2 races changed favorites.
Kalshi and Polymarket, averaged · times in UTC days
Biggest moves
| Race | Start of day | End of day | Change (D) |
|---|---|---|---|
| PA-17 (Pennsylvania) | D 88% | D 59% | ▼ 28.9 |
| NY-04 (New York) | D 73% | D 50% | ▼ 22.8 |
| VA-07 (Virginia) | D 84% | D 62% | ▼ 21.9 |
| CA-35 (California) | D 95% | D 73% | ▼ 21.4 |
| FL-13 (Florida) | D 35% | D 55% | ▲ 20.2 |
| NJ-03 (New Jersey) | D 92% | D 71% | ▼ 20.1 |
| IN-04 (Indiana) | D 10% | D 29% | ▲ 19.6 |
| TX-27 (Texas) | D 13% | D 33% | ▲ 19.3 |
| NC-07 (North Carolina) | D 11% | D 29% | ▲ 18.5 |
| TX-31 (Texas) | D 15% | D 33% | ▲ 17.4 |
Lead changes
- FL-13 (Florida)Democrat now favored: D 35% → 55%
- FL-22 (Florida)Democrat now favored: D 49% → 54%
