Daily market report
Election markets on Sunday, June 21, 2026
Republicans ended the day 57% to win the Senate; Democrats ended the day 80% to win the House; the biggest move was CA-35 (California), where Democratic odds went from 73% to 95%; 1 race changed favorites.
Kalshi and Polymarket, averaged · times in UTC days
Biggest moves
| Race | Start of day | End of day | Change (D) |
|---|---|---|---|
| CA-35 (California) | D 73% | D 95% | ▲ 21.8 |
| NJ-03 (New Jersey) | D 72% | D 92% | ▲ 20.0 |
| IN-04 (Indiana) | D 29% | D 10% | ▼ 19.6 |
| IL-17 (Illinois) | D 61% | D 81% | ▲ 19.1 |
| NC-07 (North Carolina) | D 29% | D 11% | ▼ 18.9 |
| TX-31 (Texas) | D 33% | D 15% | ▼ 17.5 |
| FL-18 (Florida) | D 33% | D 17% | ▼ 16.7 |
| FL-03 (Florida) | D 31% | D 16% | ▼ 15.5 |
| CT-05 (Connecticut) | D 81% | D 94% | ▲ 12.8 |
| TX-28 (Texas) | D 80% | D 68% | ▼ 12.7 |
Lead changes
- MI-04 (Michigan)Democrat now favored: D 49% → 57%
