Daily market report
Election markets on Monday, June 29, 2026
Republicans ended the day 58% to win the Senate; Democrats ended the day 82% to win the House (Democratic odds up 0.5 points); the biggest move was CA-35 (California), where Democratic odds went from 95% to 74%.
Kalshi and Polymarket, averaged · times in UTC days
Biggest moves
| Race | Start of day | End of day | Change (D) |
|---|---|---|---|
| CA-35 (California) | D 95% | D 74% | ▼ 20.9 |
| IN-04 (Indiana) | D 10% | D 30% | ▲ 19.7 |
| TX-27 (Texas) | D 13% | D 32% | ▲ 19.2 |
| FL-18 (Florida) | D 12% | D 31% | ▲ 18.3 |
| FL-03 (Florida) | D 11% | D 27% | ▲ 16.0 |
| OR-05 (Oregon) | D 89% | D 77% | ▼ 11.5 |
| FL-13 (Florida) | D 46% | D 35% | ▼ 10.6 |
| NC-07 (North Carolina) | D 10% | D 18% | ▲ 8.2 |
| VA-10 (Virginia) | D 84% | D 92% | ▲ 8.1 |
| MT-01 (Montana) | D 44% | D 36% | ▼ 7.6 |
