Daily market report
Election markets on Tuesday, June 30, 2026
Republicans ended the day 58% to win the Senate; Democrats ended the day 82% to win the House; the biggest move was CA-35 (California), where Democratic odds went from 74% to 97%; 1 race changed favorites.
Kalshi and Polymarket, averaged · times in UTC days
Biggest moves
| Race | Start of day | End of day | Change (D) |
|---|---|---|---|
| CA-35 (California) | D 74% | D 97% | ▲ 23.3 |
| IN-04 (Indiana) | D 30% | D 8% | ▼ 21.4 |
| TX-27 (Texas) | D 32% | D 12% | ▼ 20.0 |
| FL-18 (Florida) | D 31% | D 12% | ▼ 18.3 |
| FL-03 (Florida) | D 27% | D 13% | ▼ 14.0 |
| VA-11 (Virginia) | D 87% | D 98% | ▲ 10.4 |
| TX-17 (Texas) | D 23% | D 16% | ▼ 8.0 |
| VA-01 (Virginia) | D 56% | D 63% | ▲ 6.9 |
| FL-13 (Florida) | D 35% | D 29% | ▼ 6.2 |
| CA-36 (California) | D 88% | D 94% | ▲ 6.1 |
Lead changes
- FL-22 (Florida)Democrat now favored: D 50% → 53%
