Daily market report
Election markets on Wednesday, July 1, 2026
Republicans ended the day 59% to win the Senate (Democratic odds down 0.8 points); Democrats ended the day 82% to win the House; the biggest move was VA-01 (Virginia), where Democratic odds went from 63% to 53%; 1 race changed favorites.
Kalshi and Polymarket, averaged · times in UTC days
Biggest moves
| Race | Start of day | End of day | Change (D) |
|---|---|---|---|
| VA-01 (Virginia) | D 63% | D 53% | ▼ 9.7 |
| FL-13 (Florida) | D 29% | D 37% | ▲ 7.6 |
| CO-08 (Colorado) | D 76% | D 83% | ▲ 6.4 |
| IA-01 (Iowa) | D 71% | D 66% | ▼ 4.9 |
| KY-06 (Kentucky) | D 32% | D 28% | ▼ 4.6 |
| OH-07 (Ohio) | D 35% | D 39% | ▲ 4.4 |
| CA-28 (California) | D 90% | D 94% | ▲ 4.4 |
| Alaska Senate | D 63% | D 59% | ▼ 4.3 |
| NC-01 (North Carolina) | D 49% | D 53% | ▲ 4.2 |
| MO-05 (Missouri) | D 16% | D 20% | ▲ 4.1 |
Lead changes
- NC-01 (North Carolina)Democrat now favored: D 49% → 53%
