Daily market report
Election markets on Thursday, July 2, 2026
Republicans ended the day 58% to win the Senate (Democratic odds up 1.1 points); Democrats ended the day 83% to win the House; the biggest move was MI-10 (Michigan), where Democratic odds went from 54% to 64%; 1 race changed favorites.
Kalshi and Polymarket, averaged · times in UTC days
Biggest moves
| Race | Start of day | End of day | Change (D) |
|---|---|---|---|
| MI-10 (Michigan) | D 54% | D 64% | ▲ 10.7 |
| FL-13 (Florida) | D 37% | D 31% | ▼ 5.9 |
| OH-01 (Ohio) | D 79% | D 85% | ▲ 5.9 |
| IA-01 (Iowa) | D 66% | D 72% | ▲ 5.3 |
| WV-01 (West Virginia) | D 2% | D 7% | ▲ 5.0 |
| NC-01 (North Carolina) | D 53% | D 49% | ▼ 4.9 |
| IA-03 (Iowa) | D 68% | D 73% | ▲ 4.8 |
| OH-10 (Ohio) | D 27% | D 23% | ▼ 4.7 |
| KY-06 (Kentucky) | D 28% | D 32% | ▲ 4.5 |
| AZ-04 (Arizona) | D 87% | D 83% | ▼ 4.2 |
Lead changes
- FL-22 (Florida)Democrat now favored: D 50% → 53%
