Daily market report
Election markets on Friday, July 3, 2026
Republicans ended the day 58% to win the Senate; Democrats ended the day 83% to win the House; the biggest move was OR-05 (Oregon), where Democratic odds went from 77% to 86%.
Kalshi and Polymarket, averaged · times in UTC days
Biggest moves
| Race | Start of day | End of day | Change (D) |
|---|---|---|---|
| OR-05 (Oregon) | D 77% | D 86% | ▲ 8.5 |
| MI-04 (Michigan) | D 45% | D 39% | ▼ 5.3 |
| FL-13 (Florida) | D 31% | D 36% | ▲ 5.0 |
| FL-04 (Florida) | D 22% | D 27% | ▲ 4.7 |
| AZ-08 (Arizona) | D 20% | D 25% | ▲ 4.6 |
| Wyoming Governor | D 4% | D 8% | ▲ 4.3 |
| NC-09 (North Carolina) | D 14% | D 18% | ▲ 4.0 |
| New Mexico Governor | D 87% | D 91% | ▲ 3.8 |
| NC-01 (North Carolina) | D 49% | D 52% | ▲ 3.6 |
| Rhode Island Governor | D 92% | D 95% | ▲ 3.6 |
