Daily market report
Election markets on Saturday, July 4, 2026
Republicans ended the day 58% to win the Senate; Democrats ended the day 83% to win the House; the biggest move was FL-13 (Florida), where Democratic odds went from 36% to 29%.
Kalshi and Polymarket, averaged · times in UTC days
Biggest moves
| Race | Start of day | End of day | Change (D) |
|---|---|---|---|
| FL-13 (Florida) | D 36% | D 29% | ▼ 6.9 |
| CT-05 (Connecticut) | D 88% | D 94% | ▲ 6.5 |
| FL-04 (Florida) | D 27% | D 23% | ▼ 4.1 |
| Rhode Island Governor | D 95% | D 91% | ▼ 3.8 |
| OH-05 (Ohio) | D 11% | D 8% | ▼ 3.7 |
| NC-07 (North Carolina) | D 15% | D 11% | ▼ 3.6 |
| MI-13 (Michigan) | D 94% | D 98% | ▲ 3.5 |
| NJ-06 (New Jersey) | D 94% | D 97% | ▲ 3.5 |
| MD-07 (Maryland) | D 100% | D 96% | ▼ 3.3 |
| NV-03 (Nevada) | D 81% | D 85% | ▲ 3.3 |
