Daily market report
Election markets on Sunday, July 5, 2026
Republicans ended the day 57% to win the Senate; Democrats ended the day 83% to win the House; the biggest move was FL-13 (Florida), where Democratic odds went from 29% to 35%.
Kalshi and Polymarket, averaged · times in UTC days
Biggest moves
| Race | Start of day | End of day | Change (D) |
|---|---|---|---|
| FL-13 (Florida) | D 29% | D 35% | ▲ 6.6 |
| CT-05 (Connecticut) | D 94% | D 88% | ▼ 5.8 |
| New Mexico Senate | D 95% | D 90% | ▼ 4.5 |
| KS-03 (Kansas) | D 91% | D 87% | ▼ 4.3 |
| NV-01 (Nevada) | D 85% | D 89% | ▲ 3.8 |
| FL-09 (Florida) | D 31% | D 27% | ▼ 3.5 |
| TX-36 (Texas) | D 7% | D 10% | ▲ 3.3 |
| NY-02 (New York) | D 27% | D 23% | ▼ 3.3 |
| NJ-03 (New Jersey) | D 90% | D 93% | ▲ 3.2 |
| MO-01 (Missouri) | D 94% | D 97% | ▲ 3.0 |
