Daily market report
Election markets on Monday, July 6, 2026
Republicans ended the day 56% to win the Senate (Democratic odds up 1.7 points); Democrats ended the day 83% to win the House; the biggest move was Maine Senate, where Democratic odds went from 52% to 60%.
Kalshi and Polymarket, averaged · times in UTC days
Biggest moves
| Race | Start of day | End of day | Change (D) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Maine Senate | D 52% | D 60% | ▲ 7.6 |
| FL-13 (Florida) | D 35% | D 28% | ▼ 6.9 |
| CA-39 (California) | D 93% | D 98% | ▲ 4.1 |
| FL-09 (Florida) | D 27% | D 31% | ▲ 3.8 |
| New Mexico Senate | D 90% | D 94% | ▲ 3.8 |
| Oregon Governor | D 87% | D 90% | ▲ 3.6 |
| OH-09 (Ohio) | D 65% | D 69% | ▲ 3.4 |
| NY-02 (New York) | D 23% | D 27% | ▲ 3.3 |
| MO-05 (Missouri) | D 16% | D 19% | ▲ 3.1 |
| TN-05 (Tennessee) | D 22% | D 25% | ▲ 2.8 |
