Where does this market trade?

On Kalshi, a regulated prediction market. Parlay the People shows its prices; it is research, not betting advice.

Kalshi

Howard Lutnick out as Commerce Secretary?

Before Jan 2029

As of October 5, 2026, traders on Kalshi favor Before Jul 1, 2028 at 52%, ahead of Before Jul 1, 2027 at 52%. $0 traded in the last 24 hours, $1 in all.

Favorite: Before Jul 1, 2028 52%
24 hours: no change
Traded today: $0
Traded in all: $1
Closes: April 1, 2027

Every outcome

Before Jul 1, 202852%
Before Jul 1, 202752%
Before Oct 1, 202751%
Before Jan 1, 202851%
Before Jan 1, 202951%
Before Apr 1, 202724%

How the odds have moved

0%25%50%75%100%11:22 AM11:22 PM11:22 AM52% Before Jul 1, 2028

The line follows the current favorite, Before Jul 1, 2028. One reading an hour.

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Prices are Kalshi's own (bid/ask midpoint), collected every 10 minutes. Research, not betting advice.