Where does this market trade?

On Kalshi, a regulated prediction market. Parlay the People shows its prices; it is research, not betting advice.

Kalshi

Kevin Warsh out as Fed chair?

Before Jan 2030

As of October 5, 2026, traders on Kalshi favor Before Jan 1, 2031 at 80%, ahead of Before Jan 1, 2030 at 13%. $6 traded in the last 24 hours, $8K in all.

Favorite: Before Jan 1, 2031 80%
24 hours: no change
Traded today: $6
Traded in all: $8K
Closes: January 1, 2027

Every outcome

Before Jan 1, 203180%
Before Jan 1, 203013%▲ 3
Before Jan 1, 20297%
Before Jan 1, 20286%
Before Jan 1, 20272%

How the odds have moved

0%25%50%75%100%9:53 AM9:53 PM9:53 AM80% Before Jan 1, 2031

The line follows the current favorite, Before Jan 1, 2031. One reading an hour.

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Prices are Kalshi's own (bid/ask midpoint), collected every 10 minutes. Research, not betting advice.