Where does this market trade?

On Kalshi, a regulated prediction market. Parlay the People shows its prices; it is research, not betting advice.

Kalshi

Will SCOTUS bar Watanabe’s Bivens medical-care claim?

Before 2028

As of October 5, 2026, traders on Kalshi give it a 76% chance. $0 traded in the last 24 hours, $432 in all.

Chance of Yes: 76%
24 hours: no change
Traded today: $0
Traded in all: $432
Closes: August 1, 2028

The odds

Yes76%

How the odds have moved

0%25%50%75%100%7:12 AM7:12 PM7:12 AM76% Chance of Yes

The price of a Yes contract, read as the chance the market resolves Yes. One reading an hour.

Embed these odds on your site

Paste this into any page. It updates every 10 minutes and links back here. Add ?theme=light or ?theme=dark to the address to fix the colors.

<iframe src="https://parlaythepeople.com/embed/market/k-kxscotuscase-niewat28/" width="100%" height="190" style="border:0;max-width:420px" loading="lazy" title="Odds from Parlay the People"></iframe>

See this market on Kalshi →

More courts and the law markets

Idaho Attorney General winner?Raúl Labrador 95%
Michigan Attorney General winner?Eli Savit 78%
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by...?June 30, 2027 39%
Minnesota Attorney General winner?Keith Ellison 76%
Supreme Court vacancy in 2026?14%
Kansas Attorney General winner?Kris Kobach 50%
SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by...? December 31 34%
When will Justice Alito retire from the Supreme Court?Before Jul 1, 2027 27%

Every courts and the law market →

Prices are Kalshi's own (bid/ask midpoint), collected every 10 minutes. Research, not betting advice.