What are Aaron Gies's chances of winning the 2026 NY-23 House race?

As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give Aaron Gies a 5% chance (Kalshi 5%, Polymarket 4%).

How much money has Aaron Gies raised?

Aaron Gies's campaign has raised $227K and has $18K cash on hand, through June 30, 2026, according to the FEC.

Democrat · NY

Aaron Gies

As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give Aaron Gies (Democrat) a 5% chance of winning the 2026 NY-23 House race (Kalshi 5%, Polymarket 4%).

Odds in every market

Market	Chance	Kalshi	Polymarket	24h
2026 NY-23 House race	5%	5%	4%	—

Chance = this candidate's share of each market's prices, averaged across the exchanges that list it.

Campaign money

Raised: $227K
Spent: $203K
Cash on hand: $18K
Outside groups for: $0
Outside groups against: $0

Through June 30, 2026. $221K from individuals, $0 from PACs. FEC filings for Aaron Gies →

Polls

In the 2026 NY-23 House race, the Parlay polling average has Aaron Gies at 34% against Nick Langworthy at 53%, from 2 polls (newest ended 2026-09-23).

Running against

Nick Langworthy95%

Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, collected every 10 minutes. Research, not betting advice.