What are Amanda McKinney's chances of winning the 2026 WA-04 House race?

As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give Amanda McKinney a 93% chance (Kalshi 93%, Polymarket 93%).

How much money has Amanda McKinney raised?

Amanda McKinney's campaign has raised $982K and has $215K cash on hand, through July 15, 2026, according to the FEC.

Republican · WA

Amanda McKinney

As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give Amanda McKinney (Republican) a 93% chance of winning the 2026 WA-04 House race (Kalshi 93%, Polymarket 93%).

Odds in every market

Market	Chance	Kalshi	Polymarket	24h
2026 WA-04 House race	93%	93%	93%	—

Chance = this candidate's share of each market's prices, averaged across the exchanges that list it.

Campaign money

Raised: $982K
Spent: $766K
Cash on hand: $215K
Outside groups for: $2.1M
Outside groups against: $0

Through July 15, 2026. $762K from individuals, $111K from PACs, $64K of the candidate's own money. FEC filings for Amanda McKinney →

Running against

John Duresky7%

Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, collected every 10 minutes. Research, not betting advice.