What are Arthur Purves's chances of winning the 2026 VA-11 House race?

As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give Arthur Purves a 1% chance (Kalshi 1%, Polymarket 0%).

How much money has Arthur Purves raised?

Arthur Purves's campaign has raised $11K and has $200 cash on hand, through August 27, 2026, according to the FEC.

Republican · VA

Arthur Purves

As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give Arthur Purves (Republican) a 1% chance of winning the 2026 VA-11 House race (Kalshi 1%, Polymarket 0%).

Odds in every market

Market	Chance	Kalshi	Polymarket	24h
2026 VA-11 House race	1%	1%	0%	—

Chance = this candidate's share of each market's prices, averaged across the exchanges that list it.

Campaign money

Raised: $11K
Spent: $11K
Cash on hand: $200
Outside groups for: $0
Outside groups against: $0

Through August 27, 2026. $7K from individuals, $0 from PACs, $4K of the candidate's own money. FEC filings for Arthur Grahame Purves →

Running against

James Walkinshaw99%

Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, collected every 10 minutes. Research, not betting advice.