Democrat · NY
Cait Conley
As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give Cait Conley (Democrat) a 64% chance of winning the 2026 NY-17 House race (Kalshi 65%, Polymarket 64%).
Odds in every market
| Market | Chance | Kalshi | Polymarket | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 NY-17 House race | 64% | 65% | 64% | ▲ 2¢ |
Chance = this candidate's share of each market's prices, averaged across the exchanges that list it.
Campaign money
- Raised
- $4.3M
- Spent
- $3.0M
- Cash on hand
- $1.3M
- Outside groups for
- $2.1M
- Outside groups against
- $1.7M
Through June 30, 2026. $3.7M from individuals, $423K from PACs, $7K of the candidate's own money. FEC filings for Cait Conley →
Polls
In the 2026 NY-17 House race, the Parlay polling average has Cait Conley at 48% against Mike Lawler at 47%, from 3 polls (newest ended 2026-09-30).
Social buzz
46K interactions with posts about Cait Conley in the last 24 hours from 97 people; 57% of posts read as positive, up 108% on last week.
Social data from LunarCrush. Posts are what people are saying, not verified facts.
Running against
- Mike Lawler36%
Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, collected every 10 minutes. Research, not betting advice.
