Republican · NY
Mike Lawler
As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give Mike Lawler (Republican) a 36% chance of winning the 2026 NY-17 House race (Kalshi 36%, Polymarket 37%).
Odds in every market
| Market | Chance | Kalshi | Polymarket | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 NY-17 House race | 36% | 36% | 37% | ▼ 3¢ |
Chance = this candidate's share of each market's prices, averaged across the exchanges that list it.
Campaign money
- Raised
- $8.2M
- Spent
- $3.5M
- Cash on hand
- $4.8M
- Outside groups for
- $668K
- Outside groups against
- $1.4M
Through June 30, 2026. $3.2M from individuals, $1.9M from PACs. FEC filings for Michael Vincent Lawler →
Polls
In the 2026 NY-17 House race, the Parlay polling average has Mike Lawler at 47% against Cait Conley at 48%, from 3 polls (newest ended 2026-09-30).
Social buzz
132K interactions with posts about Mike Lawler in the last 24 hours from 130 people; 67% of posts read as positive, down 20% on last week.
Social data from LunarCrush. Posts are what people are saying, not verified facts.
Running against
- Cait Conley64%
Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, collected every 10 minutes. Research, not betting advice.
