What are Carmela Conroy's chances of winning the 2026 WA-05 House race?

As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give Carmela Conroy a 18% chance (Kalshi 17%, Polymarket 18%).

How much money has Carmela Conroy raised?

Carmela Conroy's campaign has raised $396K and has $74K cash on hand, through July 15, 2026, according to the FEC.

Democrat · WA

Carmela Conroy

As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give Carmela Conroy (Democrat) a 18% chance of winning the 2026 WA-05 House race (Kalshi 17%, Polymarket 18%).

Odds in every market

Market	Chance	Kalshi	Polymarket	24h
2026 WA-05 House race	18%	17%	18%	—

Chance = this candidate's share of each market's prices, averaged across the exchanges that list it.

Campaign money

Raised: $396K
Spent: $335K
Cash on hand: $74K
Outside groups for: $0
Outside groups against: $96K

Through July 15, 2026. $363K from individuals, $13K from PACs, $10K of the candidate's own money. FEC filings for Carmela Conroy →

Polls

In the 2026 WA-05 House race, the Parlay polling average has Carmela Conroy at 47% against Michael Baumgartner at 53%, from 1 polls (newest ended 2026-05-25).

Running against

Michael Baumgartner82%

Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, collected every 10 minutes. Research, not betting advice.