What are Michael Baumgartner's chances of winning the 2026 WA-05 House race?

As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give Michael Baumgartner a 82% chance (Kalshi 83%, Polymarket 82%).

How much money has Michael Baumgartner raised?

Michael Baumgartner's campaign has raised $1.7M and has $954K cash on hand, through July 15, 2026, according to the FEC.

Republican · WA

Michael Baumgartner

As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give Michael Baumgartner (Republican) a 82% chance of winning the 2026 WA-05 House race (Kalshi 83%, Polymarket 82%).

Odds in every market

Market	Chance	Kalshi	Polymarket	24h
2026 WA-05 House race	82%	83%	82%	—

Chance = this candidate's share of each market's prices, averaged across the exchanges that list it.

Campaign money

Raised: $1.7M
Spent: $976K
Cash on hand: $954K
Outside groups for: $0
Outside groups against: $598K

Through July 15, 2026. $1.3M from individuals, $367K from PACs. FEC filings for Michael James Baumgartner →

Polls

In the 2026 WA-05 House race, the Parlay polling average has Michael Baumgartner at 53% against Carmela Conroy at 47%, from 1 polls (newest ended 2026-05-25).

Running against

Carmela Conroy18%

Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, collected every 10 minutes. Research, not betting advice.