What are Chris McGowan's chances of winning the 2026 IA-04 House race?

As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give Chris McGowan a 95% chance (Kalshi 95%, Polymarket 95%).

How much money has Chris McGowan raised?

Chris McGowan's campaign has raised $680K and has $329K cash on hand, through June 30, 2026, according to the FEC.

Republican · IA

Chris McGowan

As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give Chris McGowan (Republican) a 95% chance of winning the 2026 IA-04 House race (Kalshi 95%, Polymarket 95%).

Odds in every market

Market	Chance	Kalshi	Polymarket	24h
2026 IA-04 House race	95%	95%	95%	—

Chance = this candidate's share of each market's prices, averaged across the exchanges that list it.

Campaign money

Raised: $680K
Spent: $351K
Cash on hand: $329K
Outside groups for: $173K
Outside groups against: $0

Through June 30, 2026. $563K from individuals, $117K from PACs. FEC filings for Chris McGowan →

Running against

Dave Dawson5%

Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, collected every 10 minutes. Research, not betting advice.