What are Dave Dawson's chances of winning the 2026 IA-04 House race?

As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give Dave Dawson a 5% chance (Kalshi 5%, Polymarket 5%).

How much money has Dave Dawson raised?

Dave Dawson's campaign has raised $136K and has $50K cash on hand, through June 30, 2026, according to the FEC.

Democrat · IA

As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give Dave Dawson (Democrat) a 5% chance of winning the 2026 IA-04 House race (Kalshi 5%, Polymarket 5%).

Market	Chance	Kalshi	Polymarket	24h
2026 IA-04 House race	5%	5%	5%	—

Chance = this candidate's share of each market's prices, averaged across the exchanges that list it.

Through June 30, 2026. $125K from individuals, $6K from PACs. FEC filings for Dave Dawson →

Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, collected every 10 minutes. Research, not betting advice.