Republican · AK
Dan Sullivan
As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give Dan Sullivan (Republican) a 27% chance of winning the 2026 Alaska Senate race (Polymarket 27%).
Odds in every market
| Market | Chance | Kalshi | Polymarket | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Alaska Senate race | 27% | — | 27% | — |
Chance = this candidate's share of each market's prices, averaged across the exchanges that list it.
Campaign money
- Raised
- $9.1M
- Spent
- $3.9M
- Cash on hand
- $7.3M
- Outside groups for
- $6.7M
- Outside groups against
- $16.8M
Through July 29, 2026. $4.1M from individuals, $1.9M from PACs. FEC filings for Dan Sullivan →
Social buzz
1.8M interactions with posts about Dan Sullivan in the last 24 hours from 272 people; 72% of posts read as positive, down 38% on last week.
- NYT/Siena poll | 9/24-10/1 LV US Senate Alaska 2026 (Men) 🟦Mary Peltola 47% 🟥Dan Sullivan 45% (incumbent) Mary Peltola is the only Democratic candidate in the latest batch of NYT/Siena polls who leads with men. Politics & Poll Tracker 📡 · tweet
- Dan Sullivan hasn't led in a public poll since June. Jon Husted has't led in a public poll since June. Ken Paxton hasn't led in a public poll since August. Definitely Not Al Gore 🇺🇲🇺🇦🇵🇸 · tweet
- As predicted, that story not only didn't hurt her with men, it probably helped her. That said, if I am Peltola, despite the DEM poll lean NOT being an issue for Sullivan without Trump on the ballot, I'd say ant a bigger Rich Baris THE PEOPLE'S PUNDIT · tweet
Social data from LunarCrush. Posts are what people are saying, not verified facts.
Running against
Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, collected every 10 minutes. Research, not betting advice.
