Democrat · AK
Mary Peltola
As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give Mary Peltola (Democrat) a 72% chance of winning the 2026 Alaska Senate race (Polymarket 72%). Mary Peltola also appears in 1 other market below.
Odds in every market
| Market | Chance | Kalshi | Polymarket | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Alaska Senate race | 72% | — | 72% | — |
| 2026 Alaska governor race | 0% | 0% | 0% | — |
Chance = this candidate's share of each market's prices, averaged across the exchanges that list it.
Campaign money
- Raised
- $18.5M
- Spent
- $13.9M
- Cash on hand
- $4.6M
- Outside groups for
- $3.6M
- Outside groups against
- $13.2M
Through July 29, 2026. $16.3M from individuals, $602K from PACs. FEC filings for Mary Peltola →
Social buzz
1.9M interactions with posts about Mary Peltola in the last 24 hours from 214 people; 67% of posts read as positive, down 76% on last week.
- A Native American woman has never been a governor or a U.S. senator. That could change this year if Deb Haaland wins the governor’s race in New Mexico, and if either former congresswoman Mary Peltola or Minnesota Lt. Gov The Washington Post · tweet
- 2026 Dem Senate recruits tier list ELECTABILITY ONLY: S Tier: Adam Hamilton, Roy Cooper, Mary Peltola A Tier: James Talarico, Sherrod Brown, Josh Turek, Dan Osborn B Tier: Annie Andrews, Angie Nixon C Tier: Abdul El-Saye David · tweet
- 🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 Democrats now lead Senate races in Texas, Alaska and Ohio as the Iran war and $4 gas reshape red states New NYT/Siena polls of likely voters have James Talarico up 6 on Ken Paxton in Texas, Mary Peltola up 7 in Ala Mario Nawfal · tweet
Social data from LunarCrush. Posts are what people are saying, not verified facts.
Running against
- Dan Sullivan27%
- Ann Diener0%
- Dustin Darden0%
- Richard Grayson0%
- David Leslie0%
- Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins76%
- Bernadette Wilson19%
- Dave Bronson2%
- Treg Taylor1%
- Tom Begich1%
- Bill Walker0%
- Lesil McGuire0%
- James Parkin0%
- Shelley Hughes0%
- Click Bishop0%
- Adam Crum0%
- Matt Heilala0%
- Edna DeVries0%
- Matthew Claman0%
- Lisa Murkowski0%
- Hank Kroll0%
- Bruce Walden0%
- Gregg Brelsford0%
- Jessica Faircloth0%
- Destry J. Payne Sr.0%
- Nancy Dahlstrom0%
Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, collected every 10 minutes. Research, not betting advice.
