What are Dani Sterbinsky's chances of winning the 2026 AZ-09 House race?

As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give Dani Sterbinsky a 4% chance (Kalshi 6%, Polymarket 3%).

How much money has Dani Sterbinsky raised?

Dani Sterbinsky's campaign has raised $354K and has $26K cash on hand, through July 1, 2026, according to the FEC.

Democrat · AZ

Dani Sterbinsky

As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give Dani Sterbinsky (Democrat) a 4% chance of winning the 2026 AZ-09 House race (Kalshi 6%, Polymarket 3%).

Odds in every market

Market	Chance	Kalshi	Polymarket	24h
2026 AZ-09 House race	4%	6%	3%	▲ 1¢

Chance = this candidate's share of each market's prices, averaged across the exchanges that list it.

Campaign money

Raised: $354K
Spent: $332K
Cash on hand: $26K
Outside groups for: $0
Outside groups against: $0

Through July 1, 2026. $354K from individuals, $0 from PACs. FEC filings for Danielle Sterbinsky →

Running against

Paul Gosar96%

Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, collected every 10 minutes. Research, not betting advice.