What are Darin LaHood's chances of winning the 2026 IL-16 House race?

As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give Darin LaHood a 95% chance (Kalshi 94%, Polymarket 96%).

How much money has Darin LaHood raised?

Darin LaHood's campaign has raised $3.7M and has $6.7M cash on hand, through June 30, 2026, according to the FEC.

Republican · IL

Darin LaHood

As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give Darin LaHood (Republican) a 95% chance of winning the 2026 IL-16 House race (Kalshi 94%, Polymarket 96%).

Odds in every market

Market	Chance	Kalshi	Polymarket	24h
2026 IL-16 House race	95%	94%	96%	▼ 1¢

Chance = this candidate's share of each market's prices, averaged across the exchanges that list it.

Campaign money

Raised: $3.7M
Spent: $2.4M
Cash on hand: $6.7M
Outside groups for: $0
Outside groups against: $0

Through June 30, 2026. $845K from individuals, $1.7M from PACs. FEC filings for Darin McKay Lahood →

Running against

Paul Nolley5%

Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, collected every 10 minutes. Research, not betting advice.