What are Paul Nolley's chances of winning the 2026 IL-16 House race?

As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give Paul Nolley a 5% chance (Kalshi 6%, Polymarket 4%).

How much money has Paul Nolley raised?

Paul Nolley's campaign has raised $416K and has $230K cash on hand, through June 30, 2026, according to the FEC.

Democrat · IL

As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give Paul Nolley (Democrat) a 5% chance of winning the 2026 IL-16 House race (Kalshi 6%, Polymarket 4%).

Market	Chance	Kalshi	Polymarket	24h
2026 IL-16 House race	5%	6%	4%	▼ 1¢

Chance = this candidate's share of each market's prices, averaged across the exchanges that list it.

Through June 30, 2026. $351K from individuals, $61K from PACs, $2K of the candidate's own money. FEC filings for Paul Nolley →

Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, collected every 10 minutes. Research, not betting advice.