Democrat · FL
David Jolly
As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give David Jolly (Democrat) a 24% chance of winning the 2026 Florida governor race (Kalshi 23%, Polymarket 24%).
Odds in every market
| Market | Chance | Kalshi | Polymarket | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Florida governor race | 24% | 23% | 24% | — |
Chance = this candidate's share of each market's prices, averaged across the exchanges that list it.
Polls
In the 2026 Florida governor race, the Parlay polling average has David Jolly at 43% against Byron Donalds at 47%, from 3 polls (newest ended 2026-09-27).
Social buzz
941K interactions with posts about David Jolly in the last 24 hours from 438 people; 82% of posts read as positive, up 21% on last week.
- WSJ: Florida Republican gubernatorial nominee Byron Donalds was once expected to cruise to victory over Democrat David Jolly Now his top donors are getting nervous. At a private retreat in Miami last month, Donalds told Republicans against Trump · tweet
- The Miami Herald just endorsed David Jolly. Translation: the paper that spent years attacking DeSantis policies wants the guy who flipped parties to unwind them. Floridians already know the choice. Byron Donalds. Period. Evan Power · tweet
- These people have nothing to do with me, Jay, or the campaign. I can’t stand Louis, but on this we actually agree. David Jolly is a socialist who will destroy the state. I don’t understand the people who supported Jay at John Cardillo · tweet
Social data from LunarCrush. Posts are what people are saying, not verified facts.
Running against
Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, collected every 10 minutes. Research, not betting advice.
