What are Greg Murphy's chances of winning the 2026 NC-03 House race?

As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give Greg Murphy a 86% chance (Kalshi 85%, Polymarket 86%).

How much money has Greg Murphy raised?

Greg Murphy's campaign has raised $2.4M and has $2.7M cash on hand, through June 30, 2026, according to the FEC.

Republican · NC

Greg Murphy

As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give Greg Murphy (Republican) a 86% chance of winning the 2026 NC-03 House race (Kalshi 85%, Polymarket 86%).

Odds in every market

Market	Chance	Kalshi	Polymarket	24h
2026 NC-03 House race	86%	85%	86%	—

Chance = this candidate's share of each market's prices, averaged across the exchanges that list it.

Campaign money

Raised: $2.4M
Spent: $1.2M
Cash on hand: $2.7M
Outside groups for: $131K
Outside groups against: $327K

Through June 30, 2026. $1.0M from individuals, $1.0M from PACs. FEC filings for Gregory Francis Murphy →

Polls

In the 2026 NC-03 House race, the Parlay polling average has Greg Murphy at 44% against Raymond Smith Jr. at 41%, from 1 polls (newest ended 2026-08-02).

Running against

Raymond Smith Jr.14%

Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, collected every 10 minutes. Research, not betting advice.