Democrat · TX
James Talarico
As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give James Talarico (Democrat) a 3% chance of winning the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination (Kalshi 3%, Polymarket 3%). James Talarico also appears in 2 other markets below.
Odds in every market
| Market | Chance | Kalshi | Polymarket | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2028 Democratic presidential nomination | 3% | 3% | 3% | ▼ 1¢ |
| 2028 presidential election | 1% | 2% | 1% | ▼ 1¢ |
| 2026 Texas Senate race | 64% | 64% | 64% | ▲ 1¢ |
Chance = this candidate's share of each market's prices, averaged across the exchanges that list it.
Campaign money
- Raised
- $68.6M
- Spent
- $47.0M
- Cash on hand
- $21.5M
- Outside groups for
- $9.1M
- Outside groups against
- $113.6M
Through June 30, 2026. $65.6M from individuals, $348K from PACs. FEC filings for James Talarico →
Polls
In the 2026 Texas Senate race, the Parlay polling average has James Talarico at 48% against Ken Paxton at 45%, from 17 polls (newest ended 2026-09-30).
Social buzz
12.6M interactions with posts about James Talarico in the last 24 hours from 2K people; 61% of posts read as positive, up 24% on last week.
- JUST IN: Rep. Jasmine Crockett declines to endorse James Talarico in the Texas Senate race, months after he defeated her in the Democratic primary. Polymarket · tweet
- Texans Leave Voicemails for Ken Paxton and James Talarico James Talarico · youtube-video
- Texas parents need a James Talarico alert. He'd surrender our border to the cartels. Make your plan to VOTE and defeat him! America · tweet
Social data from LunarCrush. Posts are what people are saying, not verified facts.
Recent headlines
Running against
- Ken Paxton36%
Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, collected every 10 minutes. Research, not betting advice.
