Republican · TX
Ken Paxton
As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give Ken Paxton (Republican) a 36% chance of winning the 2026 Texas Senate race (Kalshi 36%, Polymarket 37%).
Odds in every market
| Market | Chance | Kalshi | Polymarket | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Texas Senate race | 36% | 36% | 37% | ▼ 1¢ |
Chance = this candidate's share of each market's prices, averaged across the exchanges that list it.
Campaign money
- Raised
- $9.2M
- Spent
- $7.5M
- Cash on hand
- $1.8M
- Outside groups for
- $87.3M
- Outside groups against
- $43.5M
Through June 30, 2026. $9.0M from individuals, $158K from PACs. FEC filings for Warren Kenneth Paxton Jr. →
Polls
In the 2026 Texas Senate race, the Parlay polling average has Ken Paxton at 45% against James Talarico at 48%, from 17 polls (newest ended 2026-09-30).
Social buzz
11.5M interactions with posts about Ken Paxton in the last 24 hours from 3K people; 57% of posts read as positive, up 56% on last week.
- As She Divorces Ken Paxton, His Wife Urges Texans to Vote for Him mockingbird- · reddit-post
- Texans Leave Voicemails for Ken Paxton and James Talarico James Talarico · youtube-video
- John Oliver's Ken Paxton Shredding Is A Must-See The Majority Report w/ Sam Seder · youtube-video
Social data from LunarCrush. Posts are what people are saying, not verified facts.
Recent headlines
- Angela Paxton backs Texas GOP ticket without naming estranged husband Ken Washington Examiner · Oct 4
- ‘Don’t Know’ Him: John Kennedy Does Not Say Yes When Asked If Ken Paxton ‘Has Character To Serve’ In Senate Daily Caller · Oct 4
- Ken Paxton urges Republicans to vote in midterm elections KWTX · Oct 3
Running against
Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, collected every 10 minutes. Research, not betting advice.
