Democrat · OR
Jeff Merkley
As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give Jeff Merkley (Democrat) a 98% chance of winning the 2026 Oregon Senate race (Kalshi 98%, Polymarket 98%).
Odds in every market
| Market | Chance | Kalshi | Polymarket | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Oregon Senate race | 98% | 98% | 98% | — |
Chance = this candidate's share of each market's prices, averaged across the exchanges that list it.
Campaign money
- Raised
- $4.5M
- Spent
- $2.0M
- Cash on hand
- $6.8M
- Outside groups for
- $0
- Outside groups against
- $0
Through June 30, 2026. $3.5M from individuals, $478K from PACs. FEC filings for Jeffrey Alan Merkley →
Social buzz
100K interactions with posts about Jeff Merkley in the last 24 hours from 78 people; 38% of posts read as positive, down 65% on last week.
- "A President is not a king." Sen. Jeff Merkley, U.S. Senate floor, September 30, 2026. GAO says the President cannot let enacted funds expire without Congress canceling them. GAO B-338788, September 29, 2026, page 3. Con Project Curia · tiktok-video
- Jeff Merkley Runs 70 Laps to Raise Money for Democratic Senate Candidates Aiming to Flip Republican Seats Afterswiftie · reddit-post
- Sen. Bernie Sanders, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, and Sen. Jeff Merkley have introduced legislation targeting the federal government’s use of automated license plate readers, including systems operated by Flock Safety. cheesemezzz · reddit-post
Social data from LunarCrush. Posts are what people are saying, not verified facts.
Running against
Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, collected every 10 minutes. Research, not betting advice.
