What are Jena Nelson's chances of winning the 2026 OK-05 House race?

As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give Jena Nelson a 12% chance (Kalshi 12%, Polymarket 13%).

How much money has Jena Nelson raised?

Jena Nelson's campaign has raised $449K and has $17K cash on hand, through June 30, 2026, according to the FEC.

Democrat · OK

Jena Nelson

As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give Jena Nelson (Democrat) a 12% chance of winning the 2026 OK-05 House race (Kalshi 12%, Polymarket 13%).

Odds in every market

Market	Chance	Kalshi	Polymarket	24h
2026 OK-05 House race	12%	12%	13%	—

Chance = this candidate's share of each market's prices, averaged across the exchanges that list it.

Campaign money

Raised: $449K
Spent: $432K
Cash on hand: $17K
Outside groups for: $0
Outside groups against: $0

Through June 30, 2026. $440K from individuals, $4K from PACs. FEC filings for Jena Nelson →

Polls

In the 2026 OK-05 House race, the Parlay polling average has Jena Nelson at 43% against Stephanie Bice at 48%, from 1 polls (newest ended 2026-09-20).

Running against

Stephanie Bice88%

Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, collected every 10 minutes. Research, not betting advice.