What are JoAnna Mendoza's chances of winning the 2026 AZ-06 House race?

As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give JoAnna Mendoza a 83% chance (Kalshi 84%, Polymarket 82%).

How much money has JoAnna Mendoza raised?

JoAnna Mendoza's campaign has raised $7.4M and has $3.3M cash on hand, through July 1, 2026, according to the FEC.

Democrat · AZ

JoAnna Mendoza

As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give JoAnna Mendoza (Democrat) a 83% chance of winning the 2026 AZ-06 House race (Kalshi 84%, Polymarket 82%).

Odds in every market

Market	Chance	Kalshi	Polymarket	24h
2026 AZ-06 House race	83%	84%	82%	—

Chance = this candidate's share of each market's prices, averaged across the exchanges that list it.

Campaign money

Raised: $7.4M
Spent: $4.1M
Cash on hand: $3.3M
Outside groups for: $333K
Outside groups against: $488K

Through July 1, 2026. $5.9M from individuals, $517K from PACs. FEC filings for Joanna Mendoza →

Polls

In the 2026 AZ-06 House race, the Parlay polling average has JoAnna Mendoza at 47% against Juan Ciscomani at 45%, from 2 polls (newest ended 2026-06-11).

Running against

Juan Ciscomani17%

Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, collected every 10 minutes. Research, not betting advice.