What are Juan Ciscomani's chances of winning the 2026 AZ-06 House race?

As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give Juan Ciscomani a 17% chance (Kalshi 16%, Polymarket 18%).

How much money has Juan Ciscomani raised?

Juan Ciscomani's campaign has raised $6.2M and has $4.1M cash on hand, through July 1, 2026, according to the FEC.

Republican · AZ

Juan Ciscomani

As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give Juan Ciscomani (Republican) a 17% chance of winning the 2026 AZ-06 House race (Kalshi 16%, Polymarket 18%).

Odds in every market

Market	Chance	Kalshi	Polymarket	24h
2026 AZ-06 House race	17%	16%	18%	—

Chance = this candidate's share of each market's prices, averaged across the exchanges that list it.

Campaign money

Raised: $6.2M
Spent: $2.3M
Cash on hand: $4.1M
Outside groups for: $1.2M
Outside groups against: $3.0M

Through July 1, 2026. $2.3M from individuals, $1.7M from PACs. FEC filings for Juan Ciscomani →

Polls

In the 2026 AZ-06 House race, the Parlay polling average has Juan Ciscomani at 45% against JoAnna Mendoza at 47%, from 2 polls (newest ended 2026-06-11).

Running against

JoAnna Mendoza83%

Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, collected every 10 minutes. Research, not betting advice.