Republican · VA
John McGuire
As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give John McGuire (Republican) a 79% chance of winning the 2026 VA-05 House race (Kalshi 79%, Polymarket 79%).
Odds in every market
| Market | Chance | Kalshi | Polymarket | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 VA-05 House race | 79% | 79% | 79% | ▼ 2¢ |
Chance = this candidate's share of each market's prices, averaged across the exchanges that list it.
Campaign money
- Raised
- $1.8M
- Spent
- $1.3M
- Cash on hand
- $524K
- Outside groups for
- $393K
- Outside groups against
- $1.2M
Through July 15, 2026. $1.1M from individuals, $416K from PACs. FEC filings for John J. Mr. McGuire III →
Polls
In the 2026 VA-05 House race, the Parlay polling average has John McGuire at 50% against Tom Perriello at 45%, from 2 polls (newest ended 2026-09-28).
Social buzz
3K interactions with posts about John McGuire in the last 24 hours from 29 people; 68% of posts read as positive, down 66% on last week.
Social data from LunarCrush. Posts are what people are saying, not verified facts.
Running against
Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, collected every 10 minutes. Research, not betting advice.
