What are John Nagel's chances of winning the 2026 MN-05 House race?

As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give John Nagel a 2% chance (Kalshi 2%, Polymarket 1%).

How much money has John Nagel raised?

John Nagel's campaign has raised $747K and has $47K cash on hand, through July 22, 2026, according to the FEC.

Republican · MN

As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give John Nagel (Republican) a 2% chance of winning the 2026 MN-05 House race (Kalshi 2%, Polymarket 1%).

Market	Chance	Kalshi	Polymarket	24h
2026 MN-05 House race	2%	2%	1%	—

Chance = this candidate's share of each market's prices, averaged across the exchanges that list it.

Through July 22, 2026. $747K from individuals, $263 from PACs. FEC filings for John Nagel →

Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, collected every 10 minutes. Research, not betting advice.