Democrat · AZ
Jonathan Nez
As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give Jonathan Nez (Democrat) a 31% chance of winning the 2026 AZ-02 House race (Kalshi 32%, Polymarket 31%).
Odds in every market
| Market | Chance | Kalshi | Polymarket | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 AZ-02 House race | 31% | 32% | 31% | — |
Chance = this candidate's share of each market's prices, averaged across the exchanges that list it.
Campaign money
- Raised
- $3.5M
- Spent
- $1.7M
- Cash on hand
- $1.9M
- Outside groups for
- $109K
- Outside groups against
- $283K
Through July 1, 2026. $3.2M from individuals, $213K from PACs. FEC filings for Jonathan Michael Nez →
Polls
In the 2026 AZ-02 House race, the Parlay polling average has Jonathan Nez at 43% against Eli Crane at 49%, from 2 polls (newest ended 2026-08-24).
Social buzz
91K interactions with posts about Jonathan Nez in the last 24 hours from 11 people; 84% of posts read as positive, up 136% on last week.
Social data from LunarCrush. Posts are what people are saying, not verified facts.
Running against
- Eli Crane69%
Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, collected every 10 minutes. Research, not betting advice.
