Democrat · NY
Kathy Hochul
As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give Kathy Hochul (Democrat) a 95% chance of winning the 2026 New York governor race (Kalshi 95%, Polymarket 96%).
Odds in every market
| Market | Chance | Kalshi | Polymarket | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 New York governor race | 95% | 95% | 96% | — |
Chance = this candidate's share of each market's prices, averaged across the exchanges that list it.
Polls
In the 2026 New York governor race, the Parlay polling average has Kathy Hochul at 54% against Bruce Blakeman at 40%, from 4 polls (newest ended 2026-09-20).
Social buzz
3.9M interactions with posts about Kathy Hochul in the last 24 hours from 1K people; 29% of posts read as positive, up 223% on last week.
- When Kathy Hochul significantly underperforms again I hope Albany finally takes this seriously bc again, I live in a studio apartment chris cross big apple sauce 🍎🗽🍕🥯 · tweet
- New Yorkers, don't forget: I'm within single digits of Kathy Hochul, and I'm not letting up. She's given you the highest taxes in the nation, rising crime, and a state people are fleeing. When I am Governor, I'll bring Bruce Blakeman · tweet
- JUST IN: Republican Bruce Blakeman says his internal polling now puts him within the MARGIN OF ERROR against Democrat Kathy Hochul in the New York governor’s race. Blakeman says he knows the numbers are accurate because Overton · tweet
Social data from LunarCrush. Posts are what people are saying, not verified facts.
Running against
Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, collected every 10 minutes. Research, not betting advice.
