Republican · OK
Kevin Hern
As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give Kevin Hern (Republican) a 98% chance of winning the 2026 Oklahoma Senate race (Kalshi 98%, Polymarket 99%).
Odds in every market
| Market | Chance | Kalshi | Polymarket | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Oklahoma Senate race | 98% | 98% | 99% | — |
Chance = this candidate's share of each market's prices, averaged across the exchanges that list it.
Campaign money
- Raised
- $10.0M
- Spent
- $7.5M
- Cash on hand
- $2.5M
- Outside groups for
- $2.4M
- Outside groups against
- $0
Through June 30, 2026. $1.1M from individuals, $700K from PACs, $5.0M of the candidate's own money. FEC filings for Kevin Hern →
Polls
In the 2026 Oklahoma Senate race, the Parlay polling average has Kevin Hern at 49% against N’Kiyla Thomas at 25%, from 1 polls (newest ended 2026-08-06).
Social buzz
6K interactions with posts about Kevin Hern in the last 24 hours from 35 people; 68% of posts read as positive, down 67% on last week.
- 🚨 THE BIGGEST MOVES CONGRESS MADE THIS WEEK 🚨 Ranked from biggest to smallest 👇🏻 1/6 ExxonMobil $XOM Kevin Hern (R) | SOLD $100K to $250K 🟢 +36.29% YTD Timothy 🟢 | Panic Drop · tweet
- 2/6 Marsh $MRSH Kevin Hern (R) | SOLD $100K to $250K 🔴 -8.33% YTD Timothy 🟢 | Panic Drop · tweet
- 5/6 PTC $PTC Kevin Hern (R) | SOLD $50K to $100K, twice 🔴 -17.32% YTD Timothy 🟢 | Panic Drop · tweet
Social data from LunarCrush. Posts are what people are saying, not verified facts.
Running against
Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, collected every 10 minutes. Research, not betting advice.
