What are Lloyd Smucker's chances of winning the 2026 PA-11 House race?

As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give Lloyd Smucker a 95% chance (Kalshi 94%, Polymarket 95%).

How much money has Lloyd Smucker raised?

Lloyd Smucker's campaign has raised $1.5M and has $811K cash on hand, through June 30, 2026, according to the FEC.

Republican · PA

Lloyd Smucker

As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give Lloyd Smucker (Republican) a 95% chance of winning the 2026 PA-11 House race (Kalshi 94%, Polymarket 95%).

Odds in every market

Market	Chance	Kalshi	Polymarket	24h
2026 PA-11 House race	95%	94%	95%	—

Chance = this candidate's share of each market's prices, averaged across the exchanges that list it.

Campaign money

Raised: $1.5M
Spent: $1.6M
Cash on hand: $811K
Outside groups for: $0
Outside groups against: $0

Through June 30, 2026. $225K from individuals, $804K from PACs. FEC filings for Lloyd K. Smucker →

Running against

Nancy Mannion5%

Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, collected every 10 minutes. Research, not betting advice.