Republican · IL
Lupe Castillo
As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give Lupe Castillo (Republican) a 3% chance of winning the 2026 IL-04 House race (Kalshi 2%, Polymarket 4%).
Odds in every market
| Market | Chance | Kalshi | Polymarket | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 IL-04 House race | 3% | 2% | 4% | — |
Chance = this candidate's share of each market's prices, averaged across the exchanges that list it.
Running against
Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, collected every 10 minutes. Research, not betting advice.
