What are Patty Garcia's chances of winning the 2026 IL-04 House race?

As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give Patty Garcia a 95% chance (Kalshi 94%, Polymarket 97%).

How much money has Patty Garcia raised?

Patty Garcia's campaign has raised $376K and has $28K cash on hand, through June 30, 2026, according to the FEC.

Democrat · IL

Patty Garcia

As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give Patty Garcia (Democrat) a 95% chance of winning the 2026 IL-04 House race (Kalshi 94%, Polymarket 97%).

Odds in every market

Market	Chance	Kalshi	Polymarket	24h
2026 IL-04 House race	95%	94%	97%	—

Chance = this candidate's share of each market's prices, averaged across the exchanges that list it.

Campaign money

Raised: $376K
Spent: $384K
Cash on hand: $28K
Outside groups for: $0
Outside groups against: $0

Through June 30, 2026. $194K from individuals, $156K from PACs. FEC filings for Jesus Garcia →

Running against

Chris Getty3%
Lupe Castillo3%
Mayra Macías0%

Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, collected every 10 minutes. Research, not betting advice.