What are Mark Alford's chances of winning the 2026 MO-04 House race?

As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give Mark Alford a 94% chance (Polymarket 94%).

How much money has Mark Alford raised?

Mark Alford's campaign has raised $1.4M and has $747K cash on hand, through July 15, 2026, according to the FEC.

Republican · MO

As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give Mark Alford (Republican) a 94% chance of winning the 2026 MO-04 House race (Polymarket 94%).

Market	Chance	Kalshi	Polymarket	24h
2026 MO-04 House race	94%	—	94%	—

Chance = this candidate's share of each market's prices, averaged across the exchanges that list it.

Through July 15, 2026. $771K from individuals, $567K from PACs. FEC filings for Mark Alford →

Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, collected every 10 minutes. Research, not betting advice.