What are Marty Jackley's chances of winning the 2026 SD-AL House race?

As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give Marty Jackley a 96% chance (Kalshi 96%, Polymarket 95%).

How much money has Marty Jackley raised?

Marty Jackley's campaign has raised $1.4M and has $1.1M cash on hand, through June 30, 2026, according to the FEC.

Republican · SD

Marty Jackley

As of October 5, 2026, prediction markets give Marty Jackley (Republican) a 96% chance of winning the 2026 SD-AL House race (Kalshi 96%, Polymarket 95%).

Odds in every market

Market	Chance	Kalshi	Polymarket	24h
2026 SD-AL House race	96%	96%	95%	—

Chance = this candidate's share of each market's prices, averaged across the exchanges that list it.

Campaign money

Raised: $1.4M
Spent: $376K
Cash on hand: $1.1M
Outside groups for: $211K
Outside groups against: $0

Through June 30, 2026. $1.2M from individuals, $181K from PACs, $1K of the candidate's own money. FEC filings for Marty Jackley →

Running against

Nicole Gronli4%

Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, collected every 10 minutes. Research, not betting advice.